Russian Federation §

Patron, broker and declining guarantor

Russia is the successor to the imperial and Soviet power that shaped the basic map of the modern South Caucasus. The Russian Empire conquered the eastern South Caucasus in the nineteenth century; the Soviet Union drew the borders and autonomies that became the post-1991 dispute map. The Russian Federation inherited military bases, peace-broker roles and a security relationship with Armenia through the CSTO.

Russia brokered the 1994 Bishkek ceasefire and the 9 November 2020 trilateral statement, then deployed peacekeepers to the Lachin Corridor and residual Armenian-controlled Karabakh. That role collapsed between 2022 and 2024. Russian peacekeepers did not prevent the Lachin blockade, the September 2023 operation or the exodus, and withdrew in 2024 after the Armenian population had gone.

For Armenia, Russia moved from indispensable protector to unreliable patron. For Azerbaijan, Russia remained a broker to be managed, not an enemy. The Ukraine war accelerated this shift by reducing Russian leverage and making Moscow more dependent on avoiding confrontation with Baku and Ankara. editorial