Frozen Conflict, Shifting Power §

Twenty-six years of frozen conflict, an oil-funded military build-up in Azerbaijan, and the slow shift in the regional balance.

OSCE Minsk runs through nine US administrations and produces no settlement. Azerbaijani per capita GDP overtakes Armenian by 1998 and triples by 2008 on oil revenues; defence spending follows. Armenian internal politics fractures (1999 parliament shooting, 2008 March 1, 2018 Velvet Revolution); Aliyev consolidates dynastic power. The 2016 Four-Day War and the 2020 Tavush clashes prefigure the September 2020 war.